Market
What will be the outcome of the current ceasefire negotiation by March 17, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire approved • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
Ceasefire renegotiated • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%
Official announcements from either party or mediators, reported by major news agencies
Story
Netanyahu Accuses Hamas of Backtracking on Ceasefire Deal, Creating Last-Minute Crisis
Jan 16, 2025, 08:43 AM
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office has accused Hamas of reneging on parts of the agreed-upon ceasefire deal, creating a last-minute crisis that is preventing a settlement and holding up approval of the ceasefire. As a result, Israel will not convene a Cabinet meeting to approve the deal until Hamas confirms its full agreement to all the terms. Netanyahu's office stated that Hamas is backtracking on explicit understandings reached with mediators and Israel, attempting to extort further concessions.
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Ceasefire talks collapse • 25%
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Escalation of conflict • 25%
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Ceasefire ends without extension • 25%
Hezbollah withdraws • 25%
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Agreement on extension • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
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Breakdown of negotiations • 25%
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Extension of current ceasefire • 25%
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Other outcome • 25%
Israel resumes fighting • 25%
Ceasefire continues • 25%
Hostage agreement fulfilled • 25%
Agreement signed and implemented • 25%
Agreement signed but not implemented • 25%
Agreement not signed • 25%
Agreement delayed • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
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No hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed, no hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed and hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached but not implemented • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached and implemented • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%