Market
What will be the outcome of the ceasefire agreement by March 5, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Hezbollah withdraws • 25%
Israel takes military action • 25%
New ceasefire agreement • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government, Hezbollah, or international mediators
Story
Israel's Defense Minister Katz Threatens Action if Hezbollah Doesn't Withdraw Beyond Litani River by Deadline
Jan 5, 2025, 11:03 AM
Israel has accused Hezbollah of violating the terms of a ceasefire agreement in southern Lebanon and has threatened to take forceful action if the militant group does not comply. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that the first condition for the ceasefire requires Hezbollah's complete withdrawal beyond the Litani River, disarmament, and the dismantling of its terror infrastructure by the Lebanese Army—conditions that have not been met. Katz warned that if Hezbollah fails to withdraw by the 60-day deadline, "there will be no agreement," and Israel will act independently to ensure the safe return of its residents in the northern region. The fragile truce, which began in November, has been in place for over a month but remains under strain due to ongoing violations and mutual accusations between Israel and Hezbollah, including hundreds of alleged breaches.
View original story
Similar markets
Ceasefire renegotiated • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire ends without extension • 25%
Renewed hostilities • 25%
Ceasefire approved • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
Ceasefire renegotiated • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire talks continue without agreement • 25%
Ceasefire talks collapse • 25%
Agreement not signed • 25%
Agreement delayed • 25%
Agreement signed but not implemented • 25%
Agreement signed and implemented • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Successful implementation • 25%
Failed implementation • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Agreement on extension • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Ceasefire breakdown • 25%
Ceasefire agreement collapses • 25%
No withdrawal or disarmament • 25%
Partial withdrawal or disarmament • 25%
Hezbollah withdraws and disarms • 25%
Israel resumes fighting • 25%
Hostage agreement fulfilled • 25%
Ceasefire continues • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreement • 25%
Breakdown of negotiations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Extension of current ceasefire • 25%
