Market
What concessions will the U.S. offer in negotiations with Iran by the end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Economic sanctions relief • 25%
Military de-escalation • 25%
Nuclear program limitations • 25%
No significant concessions • 25%
Details from official negotiation documents or press releases
Story
Trump Appoints Steve Witkoff to Lead Iran Diplomacy for New Nuclear Agreement
Jan 23, 2025, 04:07 PM
President Donald Trump is set to appoint his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, to lead diplomatic efforts concerning Iran, according to multiple sources including two senior American officials. This move suggests that Trump is willing to explore diplomatic avenues before escalating pressure on Tehran. The decision is seen as an indication of Trump's interest in negotiating a new nuclear agreement with Iran, specifically addressing concerns over Tehran's nuclear programme.
View original story
Similar markets
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations failed • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
New diplomatic agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New nuclear agreement • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Escalation to military conflict • 25%
Continuation of current tensions • 25%
No talks held • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
Talks held but no agreement • 25%
Talks initiated but stalled • 25%
Waiver Maintained • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Waiver Modified • 25%
Waiver Revoked • 25%
Successful Agreement • 25%
Negotiations Extended • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Sanctions increased • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Escalation of military activities • 25%
Increased diplomatic engagement • 25%
Withdrawal from nuclear commitments • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Diplomatic Agreement • 25%
Increased Sanctions • 25%
Military Action • 25%