Market
What will be the outcome of Russia's military strategy in Ukraine by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant Territorial Gain • 25%
Withdrawal • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Territorial losses • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Reports from international organizations such as the UN, NATO, or verified news sources
Story
Putin Claims Russia Should Have Launched 'Special Military Operation' Earlier Due to Minsk Agreements
Dec 19, 2024, 02:59 PM
Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that the decision to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine should have been made earlier than February 2022. During his annual end-of-year press conference, Putin emphasized that Russia should have begun preparing for the conflict well in advance. He reiterated that the invasion, referred to by Russia as a 'special military operation,' was a response to what he described as being 'deceived' and 'forced' into action due to Ukraine's alleged non-compliance with the Minsk agreements. Putin also mentioned that the war has changed him personally, noting that he now jokes less and laughs less frequently.
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Peace negotiations commence • 25%
Russia escalates military actions • 25%
Russia maintains current level of engagement • 25%
Russia deescalates military actions • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Military victory for Russia • 25%
Military victory for Ukraine • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Russia gains significant ground • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine regains territory • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
Peace negotiations initiated • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Russian Victory • 25%
Ukrainian Victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Continued status quo • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Reduced tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace agreement with security guarantees • 25%
Peace agreement without security guarantees • 25%
Other • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Russian victory • 25%
Ukrainian victory • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Reinforcement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%