Market
What will be the military dynamics between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Reduced tensions • 25%
Continued status quo • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Reports from international defense analysts, official government statements, and credible news sources
Story
Russia's Lavrov Warns West with 'Oreshnik' Test, Seeks Normal US Relations
Dec 5, 2024, 11:30 PM
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in an interview with Tucker Carlson, stated that Russia does not seek war with the United States and desires normal relations. Lavrov emphasized that Russia is prepared to use any means to defend its interests, highlighting the recent test of the 'Oreshnik' hypersonic missile as a clear signal to the West. He warned that discussions of a limited nuclear strike are an invitation to catastrophe that Russia wants to avoid. Lavrov noted that Russia and the US currently maintain dialogue mainly through prisoner exchange channels. He reiterated that Russia does not intend to destroy the Ukrainian people, whom he referred to as 'brothers and sisters,' and asserted that it is mistaken for anyone in the West to believe that Russia has no 'red lines.' He stated that Russia's conditions are 'No NATO, no military bases, no military exercises with foreign troops on Ukrainian soil.'
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Territorial losses • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Withdrawal • 25%
Significant Territorial Gain • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Peace negotiations initiated • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
Fluctuating levels • 25%
Significant decrease • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase in activity • 25%
Ukrainian Victory • 25%
Russian Victory • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Russian victory • 25%
Ukrainian victory • 25%
Other • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Military victory for Russia • 25%
Military victory for Ukraine • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Peace negotiations commence • 25%
Russia escalates military actions • 25%
Russia maintains current level of engagement • 25%
Russia deescalates military actions • 25%
Russia launches new offensive • 25%
Ukraine launches new offensive • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other development • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
Improved • 25%
Other • 25%
Deteriorated • 25%
Conflict ongoing • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full peace agreement • 25%
Decreased military activity • 25%
Increased military activity • 25%
New frontlines established • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
Other • 25%