Market
Will there be a leadership change in Russia by December 31, 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Putin remains in power • 25%
Putin steps down • 25%
Putin is replaced • 25%
No leadership change • 25%
Official announcements from the Russian government or verified news reports
Story
Putin Claims Russia Should Have Launched 'Special Military Operation' Earlier Due to Minsk Agreements
Dec 19, 2024, 02:59 PM
Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that the decision to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine should have been made earlier than February 2022. During his annual end-of-year press conference, Putin emphasized that Russia should have begun preparing for the conflict well in advance. He reiterated that the invasion, referred to by Russia as a 'special military operation,' was a response to what he described as being 'deceived' and 'forced' into action due to Ukraine's alleged non-compliance with the Minsk agreements. Putin also mentioned that the war has changed him personally, noting that he now jokes less and laughs less frequently.
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Leadership change within Russian government • 25%
Policy shift towards de-escalation • 25%
Policy shift towards increased militarization • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Putin replaced by ally • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Putin replaced by opposition • 25%
Putin remains in power • 25%
New military commander appointed • 25%
Leadership remains unchanged • 25%
Leadership restructuring • 25%
Existing leadership remains • 25%
Other response • 25%
No changes • 25%
Yes, partial changes • 25%
Yes, complete overhaul • 25%
Diplomatic action against Ukraine • 25%
Increased security measures • 25%
Government reshuffle • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Bashar Assad remains in power • 25%
Assad replaced by opposition leader • 25%
Power-sharing agreement reached • 25%
Assad replaced by another regime member • 25%
Supreme Leader • 25%
Neither • 25%
Both • 25%
President • 25%
Other • 25%
Miguel Angel • 25%
Carlos Mendoza • 25%
Javier Torres • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Change in strategic focus • 25%
Current Commander Remains • 25%
New Commander Appointed • 25%
Other • 25%
Operation Ceased • 25%
Other major change • 25%
Prime Minister replaced • 25%
Finance Minister replaced • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%