Market
What will be the outcome of NATO's policy changes regarding Ukraine by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ukraine admitted to NATO • 25%
Ukraine offered a pathway to membership • 25%
No change in Ukraine's status • 25%
NATO membership talks initiated • 25%
Official NATO policy documents and public statements
Story
Biden Assures Putin in 2021: No NATO for Ukraine, No Tactical Nuclear Weapons
Jan 17, 2025, 10:58 AM
U.S. President Joe Biden has disclosed details of a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin from 2021, where he assured Putin that Ukraine would not join NATO without significant changes to the alliance system, and that no tactical nuclear weapons would be placed in Ukraine. Biden emphasized that all nuclear weapons had been removed from Ukraine and that the country would not become part of NATO until such changes were made. Additionally, Biden stated that Putin was concerned about the potential deployment of new nuclear weapons in Ukraine, which could lead to immediate retaliation against Moscow. These assurances were part of Biden's efforts to address Putin's fears regarding Ukraine's military alignment and nuclear capabilities.
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Ukraine joins NATO • 25%
Ukraine remains outside NATO with increased cooperation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ukraine receives no further NATO support • 25%
Withdrawal from NATO • 25%
Increased support for NATO • 25%
Increased aid to Ukraine • 25%
Reduced aid to Ukraine • 25%
Changes in defense commitments • 33%
Changes in membership criteria • 33%
No significant changes • 34%
Decreased aid and support • 25%
Increased aid and support • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Complete cessation of aid • 25%
Diplomatic resolution with Russia • 25%
Increased military involvement • 25%
Continued current support levels • 25%
Decreased involvement • 25%
Achieves NATO membership • 25%
Withdraws membership request • 25%
No change in status • 25%
Receives alternative guarantees • 25%
No change • 25%
Membership delayed • 25%
Membership denied • 25%
Membership granted • 25%
NATO accelerates membership • 25%
NATO withdraws offer • 25%
NATO delays membership • 25%
NATO maintains current stance • 25%
Increased military aid • 25%
Other • 25%
Deployment of troops • 25%
No major action • 25%
Membership negotiations started • 25%
Membership delayed • 25%
Membership rejected • 25%
Membership granted • 25%
Support for immediate membership • 25%
Support for future membership • 25%
No change in status • 25%
New security guarantees proposed • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Compromise reached • 25%
Ukraine continues NATO ambitions • 25%
Ukraine abandons NATO ambitions • 25%