Market
What will be the outcome of NATO and Ukraine relations by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ukraine joins NATO • 25%
Ukraine remains outside NATO with increased cooperation • 25%
Ukraine receives no further NATO support • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official NATO and Ukrainian government announcements
Story
Trump Seeks 5% NATO Defense Spending Target, May Settle for 3.5%; Will Continue Ukraine Aid
Dec 20, 2024, 05:48 PM
President-elect Donald Trump intends to demand that NATO member states increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP, but may settle for 3.5%, according to reports citing discussions with European officials. Currently, only 23 of the alliance's 32 members meet the existing 2% spending target. Despite his previous stance on Ukraine, Trump's team has communicated that the new administration plans to continue providing military aid to Ukraine. Trump believes that Ukraine should not be granted NATO membership and seeks an immediate end to the conflict.
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No change in Ukraine's status • 25%
Ukraine offered a pathway to membership • 25%
NATO membership talks initiated • 25%
Ukraine admitted to NATO • 25%
Diplomatic resolution with Russia • 25%
Increased military involvement • 25%
Continued current support levels • 25%
Decreased involvement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Complete cessation of aid • 25%
Decreased aid and support • 25%
Increased aid and support • 25%
Receives alternative guarantees • 25%
No change in status • 25%
Achieves NATO membership • 25%
Withdraws membership request • 25%
Membership granted by 2025 • 25%
Membership delayed beyond 2025 • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Membership denied • 25%
No change • 25%
Membership granted • 25%
Membership delayed • 25%
Membership denied • 25%
Ukraine continues NATO ambitions • 25%
Ukraine abandons NATO ambitions • 25%
Compromise reached • 25%
No resolution • 25%
No progress • 25%
Other status • 25%
Official candidate status • 25%
Full NATO member • 25%
Membership delayed • 25%
Membership rejected • 25%
Membership negotiations started • 25%
Membership granted • 25%
Increased support for NATO • 25%
Reduced aid to Ukraine • 25%
Increased aid to Ukraine • 25%
Withdrawal from NATO • 25%
Changes in membership criteria • 33%
Changes in defense commitments • 33%
No significant changes • 34%
Support Ukraine's membership • 25%
Propose alternative security measures • 25%
No clear position • 25%
Oppose Ukraine's membership • 25%