Market
What significant changes will NATO make regarding Ukraine's membership by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Changes in membership criteria • 33%
Changes in defense commitments • 33%
No significant changes • 34%
Official announcements from NATO
Story
Biden Assures Putin: No NATO for Ukraine Without Significant Changes, No Nuclear Weapons
Jan 17, 2025, 10:58 AM
U.S. President Joe Biden has revealed details of his discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin, stating that he assured Putin that Ukraine would not join NATO without significant changes to the alliance system, and that no nuclear weapons would be placed in Ukraine. Biden's comments were made in the context of a conversation from 2021, where he addressed Putin's concerns about the potential deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Biden emphasized that the U.S. had removed all nuclear weapons from Ukraine and would not reintroduce them, nor would Ukraine become a part of NATO until its system undergoes significant changes.
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NATO withdraws offer • 25%
NATO accelerates membership • 25%
NATO maintains current stance • 25%
NATO delays membership • 25%
No change • 25%
Membership delayed • 25%
Membership granted • 25%
Membership denied • 25%
No progress on membership • 25%
Ukraine receives full membership • 25%
Membership invitation issued but not finalized • 25%
Membership negotiations ongoing • 25%
Full NATO member • 25%
Official candidate status • 25%
Other status • 25%
No progress • 25%
Security guarantees without NATO membership • 25%
Full NATO membership granted • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Membership invitation extended • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Full Member • 25%
Candidate Status • 25%
Pending • 25%
Ukraine admitted to NATO • 25%
Ukraine offered a pathway to membership • 25%
No change in Ukraine's status • 25%
NATO membership talks initiated • 25%
Support Ukraine's membership • 25%
Oppose Ukraine's membership • 25%
Propose alternative security measures • 25%
No clear position • 25%
Evenly split • 25%
No official stance • 25%
Majority in favor • 25%
Majority against • 25%
Invitation denied • 25%
Invitation granted • 25%
Other • 25%
Decision postponed • 25%
Alternative security guarantees offered • 25%
Rejection of membership request • 25%
No official response • 25%
Formal invitation extended • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Membership denied • 25%
Membership delayed beyond 2025 • 25%
Membership granted by 2025 • 25%