Market
What will be the status of nuclear weapons in Ukraine by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
No nuclear weapons present • 25%
Tactical nuclear weapons deployed • 25%
Nuclear weapons under discussion • 25%
Nuclear weapons removed • 25%
Reports from international monitoring agencies and official government statements
Story
Biden Assures Putin in 2021: No NATO for Ukraine, No Tactical Nuclear Weapons
Jan 17, 2025, 10:58 AM
U.S. President Joe Biden has disclosed details of a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin from 2021, where he assured Putin that Ukraine would not join NATO without significant changes to the alliance system, and that no tactical nuclear weapons would be placed in Ukraine. Biden emphasized that all nuclear weapons had been removed from Ukraine and that the country would not become part of NATO until such changes were made. Additionally, Biden stated that Putin was concerned about the potential deployment of new nuclear weapons in Ukraine, which could lead to immediate retaliation against Moscow. These assurances were part of Biden's efforts to address Putin's fears regarding Ukraine's military alignment and nuclear capabilities.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Negotiations result in partial agreements • 25%
No negotiations occur • 25%
Negotiations result in comprehensive agreements • 25%
Negotiations occur with no agreements • 25%
Maintenance of current military status • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Reduction in military capabilities • 25%
Expansion of military capabilities • 25%
Full peace agreement • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Conflict ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Public threats • 25%
Increase readiness • 25%
No change • 25%
Decrease readiness • 25%
Ceased to exist as a sovereign state • 25%
Partially sovereign with limited recognition • 25%
Under Russian control • 25%
Fully sovereign and recognized • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Other • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
War has ended • 25%
Escalated to larger conflict • 25%
Conflict ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire in place • 25%
