Market
How will the U.S.-Iran tensions be resolved by the end of 2026?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Diplomatic agreement • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from U.S. and Iranian governments and major news outlets
Story
Trump Leaves Open Possibility of War with Iran in Second Term Amid Volatile Situation
Dec 12, 2024, 02:41 PM
In an interview with TIME magazine, President-elect Donald Trump did not rule out the possibility of a military conflict with Iran during his upcoming second term. When asked about the likelihood of war with Iran, Trump responded, 'Anything can happen. Anything can happen. It's a very volatile situation.' This statement comes amidst heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with Trump's administration previously accusing the Revolutionary Guards of attempting to assassinate him, a claim Iran has denied. Trump's comments also reflect his broader foreign policy approach, which includes a policy of 'maximum pressure' on Iran, marked by his withdrawal from the JCPOA nuclear deal in 2018 and the reinstatement of economic sanctions against Tehran.
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Military action taken • 25%
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