Market
What major policy shift will the U.S. make regarding Iran's nuclear program by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Preemptive strikes • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No major policy change • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. government or credible reporting from major news organizations
Story
Trump Weighs Preemptive Strikes on Iran Amid Fears of Nuclear Breakout
Dec 13, 2024, 05:23 AM
President-elect Donald Trump is actively considering aggressive measures to prevent Iran from advancing its nuclear weapons program, according to reports from the Wall Street Journal. Options under consideration include preemptive airstrikes and the potential transfer of "bunker-buster" bombs to Israel, marking a potential shift from the longstanding U.S. policy of containing Tehran through diplomacy and sanctions. Trump's advisers are concerned that economic pressure alone may not be sufficient to halt Iran's nuclear ambitions, and Trump has expressed concern that Iran might achieve nuclear capability during his term. In response to a question from Time Magazine about the possibility of war with Iran, Trump stated that "anything is possible."
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Similar markets
Acceleration of nuclear development • 25%
No change in current policy • 25%
Continuation with increased transparency • 25%
Complete suspension of nuclear program • 25%
Decrease enrichment levels • 25%
Other policy change • 25%
Maintain current levels • 25%
Increase enrichment levels • 25%
Military Action • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Increased Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic Agreement • 25%
Preventive airstrikes • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Airstrikes • 25%
No Action • 25%
Diplomatic Talks • 25%
New Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Military action • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Economic Sanctions • 25%
No Action • 25%
Military Strike • 25%
Diplomatic Negotiations • 25%
Enhance nuclear energy use • 25%
Pursue nuclear weapons • 25%
Seek diplomatic resolution • 25%
Maintain current stance • 25%
Full compliance with international demands • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease in enrichment activities • 25%
Increase in enrichment activities • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
New diplomatic agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
General support • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Widespread condemnation • 25%
No significant response • 25%