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What change, if any, will occur in Israeli military strategy towards Hamas by May 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military action • 25%
Diplomatic efforts • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli Defense Forces or government
Story
Hamas Releases Video of 19-Year-Old Israeli Hostage Liri Albag, First Sign of Life in 456 Days
Jan 4, 2025, 02:24 PM
Hamas has released a propaganda video on Saturday showing Israeli hostage Liri Albag, a 19-year-old surveillance soldier who was abducted from the Nahal Oz military post during the October 7 attack. In the three-and-a-half-minute video, Albag states she has been held for over 450 days, indicating it was filmed recently. This release marks the first sign of life from Albag in 456 days. Her family has requested that no parts or images of the video be publicized.
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Continuation of current strategy • 25%
Initiation of peace talks • 25%
Increase in military operations • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Partial defeat with ongoing conflict • 25%
No significant military action taken • 25%
Hostage deal reached, no military action • 25%
Complete defeat of Hamas • 25%
Ground invasion • 25%
Increased airstrikes • 25%
Other • 25%
Cyber warfare • 25%
No significant policy change • 25%
New alliances formed • 25%
Upgraded missile defense systems • 25%
Increased military spending • 25%
Hamas strengthened • 25%
No significant change in Hamas regime • 25%
Hamas regime collapsed • 25%
Hamas regime weakened but not collapsed • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Economic development focus • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
Policy shift by Hamas • 25%
Policy shift by Israel • 25%
Change in Hamas leadership • 25%
Weakened • 25%
Strengthened • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
Dismantled • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Policy reversal • 25%
Policy modification • 25%
Increased policy severity • 25%
Policy continuation • 25%
