Market
Outcome of Israel-Hamas conflict escalation by March 31, 2025?
2
Israel•Hamas•Gaza Strip•Israel Defense Forces•IDF•Shin Bet•Israeli Air Force•Southern Command•Israeli•Palestinian•Military Intelligence
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Continued military escalation • 25%
Mediation talks ongoing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official statements from involved parties
Story
Israel Conducts Over 100 Airstrikes on Hamas Targets in Gaza, Killing Dozens After Recent Rocket Fire
Jan 5, 2025, 05:31 AM
Israel conducted over 100 airstrikes on Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip over the weekend, according to reports from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Shin Bet. The strikes, which were part of a coordinated operation involving the Israeli Air Force and the Southern Command, aimed to eliminate Hamas militants and infrastructure in response to recent rocket fire into Israeli territory. Palestinian health authorities reported that these attacks resulted in the deaths of more than 110 people over a two-day period. The IDF stated that dozens of Hamas operatives were killed during the operation, which was guided by Military Intelligence.
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Similar markets
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire holds without full agreement • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire extended with negotiations ongoing • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Temporary ceasefire agreed • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreed • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire collapses entirely • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major violations • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down completely • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire fully implemented • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violation • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hamas • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire ends without major incidents • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire ends with renewed conflict • 25%
Negotiations collapse • 25%
Extended negotiations • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial ceasefire with phased agreements • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire and hostages release agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire only agreed • 25%
Renewed ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Complete defeat of Hamas • 25%
Hostage deal reached, no military action • 25%
No significant military action taken • 25%
Partial defeat with ongoing conflict • 25%
Ceasefire and Hostage Release • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Only Hostage Release • 25%
Only Ceasefire • 25%