Market
What will be the outcome of China's reunification efforts with Taiwan by 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased diplomatic talks • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Formal reunification • 25%
Official statements from the Chinese and Taiwanese governments
Story
Xi Jinping Announces China's 2024 GDP Growth Target of Around 5%, Promises Proactive Policies in 2025
Dec 31, 2024, 12:30 PM
Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that China's GDP is expected to grow around 5% in 2024, signaling that the world's second-largest economy is on track to meet its official target. Xi made these remarks at a New Year's event, emphasizing that the economy has been 'overall stable and progressing amid stability.' He also indicated that support for the economy would continue into 2025, with a commitment to implementing more proactive macroeconomic policies as part of the 14th Five-Year Plan. Despite external uncertainties and challenges in shifting to new growth drivers, Xi called for confidence in overcoming these hurdles. Additionally, he reiterated the Communist Party's stance on Taiwan, asserting that no one can stop China's reunification efforts. Xi also mentioned a shift to a 'moderately loose' policy stance to support economic growth.
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Escalation into conflict • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Increased military cooperation between Taiwan and allies • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Military conflict initiation • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Escalation leading to military conflict • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal of forces • 25%
Diplomatic resolution without military change • 25%
Continued military presence without escalation • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Significant conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Continued military standoff • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased military activity • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Weakened alliances • 25%
Strengthened alliances • 25%
Condemnation by major international bodies • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Sanctions imposed on China • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Increased support for China from other countries • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan from other countries • 25%
U.N. intervention • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Increased military presence by U.S. allies • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Other • 25%
Formal diplomatic protests • 25%
Exercises conclude peacefully • 25%
Increased military tension • 25%