Market
Outcome of Chinese military exercises near Taiwan by end of 2024?
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Taiwan•Defense Ministry•Chinese•Air Defense Identification Zone•China•Fujian•Zhejiang•Coast Guard•Japanese•East•South China Seas
Resolution / Starting Odds
Exercises conclude peacefully • 25%
Increased military tension • 25%
Formal diplomatic protests • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from Taiwan's Defense Ministry or international news agencies
Story
Taiwan on High Alert as China Deploys 90 Warships, Launches Drills Till December 11
Dec 9, 2024, 04:36 AM
Taiwan's Defense Ministry reported a significant increase in Chinese military activity around the island over the weekend, detecting 14 Chinese warships, seven military aircraft, and four balloons between Saturday and Sunday. Some of the aircraft crossed the median line and entered Taiwan's southwestern Air Defense Identification Zone. In response, Taiwan activated emergency response measures on Monday morning, raising its alert level and conducting combat readiness drills at strategic locations. China's move includes establishing seven restricted air zones near Taiwan from Monday until Wednesday, December 11, to the east of China's Fujian and Zhejiang provinces, and deploying naval and coast guard vessels around the island. Taiwan's Coast Guard is conducting 'one-on-one' monitoring of Chinese coast guard boats that come near Taiwan. Security sources note that China currently has nearly 90 navy and coast guard ships in waters near Taiwan, the southern Japanese islands, and the East and South China Seas, prompting concerns of a new round of military exercises.
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Similar markets
De-escalation • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Increased military activity • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued military standoff • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Diplomatic resolution without military change • 25%
Escalation leading to military conflict • 25%
Continued military presence without escalation • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal of forces • 25%
Military conflict initiation • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Continued presence without escalation • 25%
Engagement in conflict • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Increased military exercises • 25%
