Market
What will be the outcome of the current military tensions between China and Taiwan by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military cooperation between Taiwan and allies • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation into conflict • 25%
Official statements from the governments of China and Taiwan, and international news agencies
Story
China Deploys 90 Ships in Massive Military Operation Near Taiwan
Dec 13, 2024, 04:28 AM
China has conducted a significant military operation near Taiwan, deploying approximately 90 naval and coast guard vessels, marking one of the largest military maneuvers in recent years. This operation included simulations of attacks on foreign ships and blockades of maritime routes, according to Taiwanese security officials. The Chinese Defense Ministry has not officially confirmed these drills but stated that it is up to China to decide on military exercises based on its needs and the situation. The Taiwanese authorities have noted an increase in Chinese military activity, with 12 Chinese military aircraft and 14 naval vessels detected operating around Taiwan in the past 24 hours. This deployment is seen as a response to Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's recent visit to the U.S. territories of Hawaii and Guam, which has heightened tensions between China and Taiwan. Taiwan's defense ministry has initiated war-preparedness drills and is closely monitoring the situation, emphasizing the evolving threat from China since 2022.
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Escalation leading to military conflict • 25%
Continued military presence without escalation • 25%
Diplomatic resolution without military change • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal of forces • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Military conflict initiation • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
U.N. intervention • 25%
Increased support for China from other countries • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan from other countries • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Continued military standoff • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
Increased military activity • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Significant conflict • 25%
Condemnation by major international bodies • 25%
Sanctions imposed on China • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased diplomatic talks • 25%
Formal reunification • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased military presence by U.S. allies • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Other political changes • 25%
Leadership remains unchanged • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Resignation of current leadership • 25%