Market
What will be the state of U.S.-China relations over Taiwan by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Significant conflict • 25%
Analysis from international relations experts and reports from major news outlets
Story
Biden Approves $571M Aid for Taiwan, Includes Abrams Tanks Amid China Tensions
Dec 23, 2024, 11:09 AM
President Joe Biden has approved $571 million in military aid for Taiwan, including Defense Department materials, services, and military education. The aid is part of ongoing U.S. efforts to bolster Taiwan's defense capabilities amid rising tensions with China, which claims Taiwan as its territory. This assistance follows a series of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, including $295 million in military equipment announced earlier and $567 million authorized in September. Additionally, Taiwan recently received 38 Abrams tanks as part of a larger order, along with 300 tactical radio systems. China's Ministry of National Defense has condemned the move, stating it violates the one-China principle and the three China-U.S. joint communiqués. Chinese officials have warned that U.S. military support for Taiwan could escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait and undermine regional stability. Taiwan has expressed gratitude for the aid, viewing it as a reaffirmation of U.S. commitment to its defense.
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Similar markets
Neutral stance • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan • 25%
Maintains current policy • 25%
Decreased support for Taiwan • 25%
U.N. intervention • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan from other countries • 25%
Increased support for China from other countries • 25%
Escalation into conflict • 25%
Increased military cooperation between Taiwan and allies • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Diplomatic shift without military change • 25%
Maintained current level of support • 25%
Decreased military support • 25%
Increased military support • 25%
No change in military interactions • 25%
Decrease in military interactions • 25%
Increase in military interactions • 25%
Complete cessation of military interactions • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Decreased support for Taiwan • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan • 25%
Increase in military aid • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease in military aid • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Indeterminate • 25%
No change • 25%
Improvement • 25%
Minor deterioration • 25%
Significant deterioration • 25%