Market
Outcome of China's military exercises around Taiwan by Apr 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
De-escalation • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Increased military activity • 25%
Other • 25%
International news agencies and government statements
Story
China Deploys 90 Ships, 100 Aircraft Around Taiwan Amid U.S. Transition
Dec 11, 2024, 01:38 PM
China has initiated what Taiwan officials describe as its largest maritime deployment in recent memory, involving over 90 ships and more than 100 military aircraft in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. This significant military activity has been detected by Taiwan's Defense Ministry, which has labeled it as an attempt to intimidate Taipei and neighboring countries. The deployment comes weeks before the U.S. presidential transition, escalating tensions in the region. Taiwan has demanded that China cease its military activities in nearby waters, describing the actions as provocations and threats to regional security and stability. China, in response, has stated that it is taking 'necessary measures' to defend its sovereignty over Taiwan, although Beijing's military has not officially confirmed the exercises.
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Increased military engagement • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Continued military standoff • 25%
Formal diplomatic protests • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased military tension • 25%
Exercises conclude peacefully • 25%
Military conflict initiation • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal of forces • 25%
Escalation leading to military conflict • 25%
Continued military presence without escalation • 25%
Diplomatic resolution without military change • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Engagement in conflict • 25%
Increased military exercises • 25%
Continued presence without escalation • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Increased military presence by U.S. allies • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%