Market
What will be the outcome of China's military operations near Taiwan by June 30, 2025?
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Taiwan•China•Taiwanese Ministry of Defense•PLA•First Island Chain•Pacific•United States•Beijing•Lai•Taiwanese•Tamkang University•Taiwan Strait•Defense Ministry
Resolution / Starting Odds
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Military conflict initiation • 25%
Official reports from Taiwan's Ministry of Defense, China's Ministry of Defense, or credible international news agencies
Story
China Launches Largest Military Operation Since 1996 Near Taiwan After Lai's U.S. Visit
Dec 11, 2024, 10:25 AM
Taiwan has accused China of launching its largest maritime military operation since 1996, deploying nearly 100 ships and dozens of aircraft around the island. The Taiwanese Ministry of Defense reported that China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) has increased its military presence near Taiwan, with 19 ships and 53 aircraft detected in recent operations along the First Island Chain, a key strategic area. Officials stated that China had prepared the operation over 70 days. Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te's recent visit to the Pacific and the United States was met with condemnation from Beijing, which labeled it a separatist move and accused Lai of seeking external support for Taiwan's independence. Beijing aims to draw a 'red line' for the next U.S. president, according to Taiwanese authorities. Lin Ying-yu, a professor at Tamkang University, noted that the People's Republic of China wants to 'pressure test' Taiwan and see how far it can go, potentially testing its navy and coast guard's wintertime maneuverability. Taiwanese officials have called on China to cease its provocative acts, stating that the maneuvers threaten peace in the Taiwan Strait and escalate regional tensions. Maj. Gen. Sun Li-fang, spokesperson for Taiwan’s Defense Ministry, described the maneuvers as a significant security challenge, not just to Taiwan but to other countries in the region.
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Similar markets
Military conflict • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Increased military activity • 25%
Other • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Continued military standoff • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
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Continued military presence without escalation • 25%
Diplomatic resolution without military change • 25%
Escalation leading to military conflict • 25%
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No significant action • 25%
Increased military presence in region • 25%
Calls for diplomatic talks • 25%
Condemnation and sanctions • 25%
Escalation into conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Increased military cooperation between Taiwan and allies • 25%
Other • 25%
Formal diplomatic protests • 25%
Exercises conclude peacefully • 25%
Increased military tension • 25%
Sanctions by Western countries • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic mediation efforts • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Increased military presence by U.S. allies • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Engagement in conflict • 25%
Increased military exercises • 25%
Continued presence without escalation • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Sanctions imposed on China • 25%
Condemnation by major international bodies • 25%