Market
What will be the outcome of China's military deployment near Taiwan by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
De-escalation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Reports from international diplomatic meetings, statements from Chinese and Taiwanese governments
Story
China Deploys 60 Warships, 34 Aircraft Near Taiwan Before U.S. Transition
Dec 12, 2024, 08:02 AM
Taiwan has reported the detection of 16 Chinese warships and 34 military aircraft in its vicinity, marking one of the largest maritime deployments by China in recent memory. This escalation comes as Beijing intensifies military pressure on Taipei, with the deployment involving 60 warships and 30 coast guard vessels, according to reports. The activities are part of China's strategy to project power into the Pacific, with Taiwan officials noting the unprecedented scale of the naval presence in the Taiwan Strait. The increased military activity occurs weeks before the U.S. presidential transition, raising concerns about regional stability.
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De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Military conflict initiation • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Increased military activity • 25%
Other • 25%
Diplomatic resolution without military change • 25%
Escalation leading to military conflict • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal of forces • 25%
Continued military presence without escalation • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Continued military standoff • 25%
Increased military exercises • 25%
Engagement in conflict • 25%
Continued presence without escalation • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Other • 25%
Exercises conclude peacefully • 25%
Increased military tension • 25%
Formal diplomatic protests • 25%
Sanctions by Western countries • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic mediation efforts • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Increased military cooperation between Taiwan and allies • 25%
Escalation into conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Condemnation and sanctions • 25%
Calls for diplomatic talks • 25%
Increased military presence in region • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased military presence by U.S. allies • 25%