Market
What will be cited as the main reason for a delay in the Gaza ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
New Israeli conditions • 25%
Disagreements over hostage release • 25%
Lack of international mediation • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements or credible news reports
Story
Hamas Claims Gaza Ceasefire Agreement Is 90% Complete and Closer Than Ever, Pending Israeli Conditions Before Year-End
Dec 21, 2024, 05:45 PM
Hamas and two other Palestinian groups have announced that a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip is closer than ever, contingent on Israel refraining from imposing new conditions. Following a meeting in Cairo, representatives from Hamas indicated that significant progress has been made in negotiations, with most terms already agreed upon. The groups emphasized that the deal could be finalized before the end of the year if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not introduce new stipulations. A Palestinian official involved in the discussions stated that the negotiations regarding a hostage release and ceasefire are approximately 90% complete. The ongoing talks involve mediation from American, Qatari, and Egyptian representatives.
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Other • 25%
Disagreements over hostage release terms • 25%
Disagreements over prisoner release terms • 25%
Logistical challenges • 25%
New Israeli demands • 25%
Internal Palestinian disagreements • 25%
International pressure • 25%
Other • 25%
External Political Pressure • 25%
Mediation Challenges • 25%
Internal Israeli Opposition • 25%
Hamas Demands • 25%
Hostage Release Issues • 25%
Ceasefire Terms • 25%
Mediation Challenges • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
Violation by Israel • 25%
Violation by Hamas • 25%
External interference • 25%
Military actions • 25%
Prisoner exchange disputes • 25%
Territorial disputes • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
Humanitarian Concerns • 25%
Political Disagreements • 25%
Security Issues • 25%
Political disagreements • 25%
Technical issues • 25%
Military actions • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Israel • 25%
Hamas • 25%
Both • 25%
Neither • 25%
Internal Hamas strategy • 25%
U.S. pressure on Israel • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Lack of international pressure • 25%
Breach of terms by Hamas • 25%
External interference • 25%
Internal political pressure • 25%
Breach of terms by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire duration • 25%
Hostage release terms • 25%
Other • 25%
Border security arrangements • 25%