Market
What will be identified as the primary reason for Hamas withdrawing from negotiations by April 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
U.S. pressure on Israel • 25%
Internal Hamas strategy • 25%
Lack of international pressure • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Statements from Hamas or Israeli government, major news outlets
Story
Blinken: U.S. Pressure on Israel Caused Hamas to Withdraw from Ceasefire and Hostage Release Talks; Aid Threatened
Jan 5, 2025, 04:46 AM
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has revealed in an interview with the New York Times that public pressure from the U.S. on Israel has led Hamas to withdraw from potential ceasefire and hostage release agreements. Blinken noted that whenever there was 'public daylight' between the U.S. and Israel, Hamas perceived this as an opportunity to pull back from negotiations. He also expressed frustration over the lack of international pressure on Hamas to surrender and release hostages since the October 7 attack, describing the situation as 'astounding.' Blinken further disclosed that he had to threaten to cancel a planned visit by President Joe Biden to Israel if the country did not allow humanitarian aid into Gaza, a move that was eventually agreed upon after intense discussions with Israeli leadership.
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Violation by Hamas • 25%
Violation by Israel • 25%
External interference • 25%
Other • 25%
Prisoner exchange disputes • 25%
Territorial disputes • 25%
Military actions • 25%
Other • 25%
Mediation Challenges • 25%
Hostage Release Issues • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire Terms • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Technical issues • 25%
Political disagreements • 25%
Military actions • 25%
Other • 25%
Need for internal consultations • 25%
Lack of progress • 25%
External pressure • 25%
New Israeli demands • 25%
Other • 25%
International pressure • 25%
Internal Palestinian disagreements • 25%
Third-party intervention • 25%
Renewed hostilities initiated by Israel • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Renewed hostilities initiated by Hamas • 25%
Other • 25%
Lack of international mediation • 25%
New Israeli conditions • 25%
Disagreements over hostage release • 25%
Hamas violations • 25%
Israeli military actions • 25%
Other • 25%
Political disagreements • 25%
Israeli actions • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
External influences • 25%
Hamas actions • 25%
Breach of terms by Hamas • 25%
Breach of terms by Israel • 25%
External interference • 25%
Internal political pressure • 25%
Negotiations continue without agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations break down completely • 25%
Other outcome • 25%