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What will be the primary reason for failure to reach a Gaza ceasefire by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
New Israeli demands • 25%
Internal Palestinian disagreements • 25%
International pressure • 25%
Other • 25%
Statements from Palestinian groups, Israeli government, or major news outlets
Story
Palestinian Groups in Cairo Announce Gaza Ceasefire 'Closer Than Ever' if Israel Drops New Demands
Dec 21, 2024, 04:30 PM
After meetings in Cairo on Friday, Hamas and two other Palestinian groups, Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), announced that a Gaza ceasefire agreement with Israel is "closer than ever" if Israel stops imposing new conditions. In a rare joint statement, the factions expressed optimism that an agreement could be reached before the end of the year, provided that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not obstruct it with new demands. The groups discussed developments in the war and negotiations, as well as steps to form a societal support committee to manage the Gaza Strip. They emphasized that "the weapons of the resistance are legitimate and must not be compromised" and stressed the importance of unity in confronting Israel.
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Other reasons • 25%
Renewed hostilities initiated by Israel • 25%
Renewed hostilities initiated by Hamas • 25%
Third-party intervention • 25%
Disagreements over hostage release • 25%
Other • 25%
Lack of international mediation • 25%
New Israeli conditions • 25%
Military actions • 25%
Prisoner exchange disputes • 25%
Other • 25%
Territorial disputes • 25%
Breach of terms by Hamas • 25%
Internal political pressure • 25%
Breach of terms by Israel • 25%
External interference • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire Terms • 25%
Mediation Challenges • 25%
Hostage Release Issues • 25%
Violation by Hamas • 25%
Other • 25%
External interference • 25%
Violation by Israel • 25%
Political disagreements • 25%
Other • 25%
Israeli military actions • 25%
Hamas violations • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Technical issues • 25%
Military actions • 25%
Political disagreements • 25%
Other • 25%
Humanitarian Concerns • 25%
Security Issues • 25%
Political Disagreements • 25%
Internal Israeli Opposition • 25%
Hamas Demands • 25%
Mediation Challenges • 25%
External Political Pressure • 25%
Disagreements over prisoner release terms • 25%
Disagreements over hostage release terms • 25%
Other • 25%
Logistical challenges • 25%
Internal Hamas strategy • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Lack of international pressure • 25%
U.S. pressure on Israel • 25%