Market
Primary reason for potential Israel-Hamas ceasefire breakdown by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Prisoner exchange disputes • 25%
Territorial disputes • 25%
Military actions • 25%
Other • 25%
Major news outlets such as BBC, CNN, or Al Jazeera providing details on ceasefire breakdown
Story
Israel Frees 90 Palestinian Prisoners as Ceasefire Takes Hold After Hamas Releases 3 Hostages
Jan 19, 2025, 11:47 PM
Israel has released 90 Palestinian prisoners early Monday morning as part of a ceasefire agreement with Hamas, following the release of three Israeli hostages held in Gaza. The Israeli Prison Service confirmed the release, which comes after Hamas freed three Israeli captives on Sunday. The exchange marks the first day of the truce in the Gaza war, aimed at reducing tensions in the region. The ceasefire agreement includes provisions for the exchange of prisoners and hostages between the two sides.
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Other reasons • 25%
Technical issues • 25%
Military actions • 25%
Political disagreements • 25%
Breach of terms by Israel • 25%
External interference • 25%
Breach of terms by Hamas • 25%
Internal political pressure • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Israeli actions • 25%
External influences • 25%
Hamas actions • 25%
External interference • 25%
Violation by Israel • 25%
Violation by Hamas • 25%
Other • 25%
New Israeli demands • 25%
Other • 25%
International pressure • 25%
Internal Palestinian disagreements • 25%
Hamas Actions • 25%
Other • 25%
Israeli Actions • 25%
External Influence • 25%
Disagreements over prisoner release terms • 25%
Disagreements over hostage release terms • 25%
Other • 25%
Logistical challenges • 25%
Third-party intervention • 25%
Renewed hostilities initiated by Israel • 25%
Renewed hostilities initiated by Hamas • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Mediation Challenges • 25%
External Political Pressure • 25%
Internal Israeli Opposition • 25%
Hamas Demands • 25%
Hamas violations • 25%
Political disagreements • 25%
Other • 25%
Israeli military actions • 25%
Hostage Release Issues • 25%
Other • 25%
Mediation Challenges • 25%
Ceasefire Terms • 25%
