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What will be the primary obstacle to maintaining the Israel-Hamas ceasefire through April 2025?
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Steve Witkoff•Donald Trump•Middle East•Gaza Strip•Israel•Hamas•Witkoff•Trump•Palestinians•Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu•Jewish Sabbath
Resolution / Starting Odds
Hamas violations • 25%
Israeli military actions • 25%
Political disagreements • 25%
Other • 25%
Analysis from major news outlets and international observers
Story
Trump's Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff to Visit Gaza to Maintain Ceasefire and Hostages Release
Jan 19, 2025, 12:18 AM
Steve Witkoff, President-elect Donald Trump's envoy to the Middle East, is considering a visit to the Gaza Strip as part of his efforts to maintain a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. Witkoff, a billionaire Jewish-American real estate developer and a close friend of Trump, played a key role in negotiating the ceasefire, which is set to begin on Sunday. The agreement aims to facilitate the release of hostages held by Hamas and Palestinians detained by Israel over a six-week period. Witkoff's approach has been noted for its directness, as he reportedly pressured Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to finalize the deal, even on the Jewish Sabbath. His involvement underscores the fragile nature of the ceasefire, with plans to be a near-constant presence in the region to address any issues that could jeopardize the agreement.
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Humanitarian Concerns • 25%
Political Disagreements • 25%
Security Issues • 25%
Other • 25%
Renewed hostilities initiated by Israel • 25%
Third-party intervention • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Renewed hostilities initiated by Hamas • 25%
Internal Palestinian disagreements • 25%
New Israeli demands • 25%
Other • 25%
International pressure • 25%
Internal political pressure • 25%
Breach of terms by Israel • 25%
Breach of terms by Hamas • 25%
External interference • 25%
Military actions • 25%
Prisoner exchange disputes • 25%
Other • 25%
Territorial disputes • 25%
Violation by Israel • 25%
Other • 25%
External interference • 25%
Violation by Hamas • 25%
Ceasefire Terms • 25%
Hostage Release Issues • 25%
Mediation Challenges • 25%
Other • 25%
Technical issues • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Political disagreements • 25%
Military actions • 25%
Further hostage releases • 25%
Additional prisoner releases • 25%
Ceasefire extension • 25%
No further developments • 25%
Ceasefire continues • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Comprehensive peace talks • 25%
Ceasefire extension • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
