Market
Primary Reason for Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Breakdown by March 1, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Technical issues • 25%
Military actions • 25%
Political disagreements • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Verified news reports, official statements from Israeli government or Hamas
Story
Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Begins After Three-Hour Delay; Three Israeli Women Hostages to Be Released
Jan 19, 2025, 08:07 AM
The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza took effect at 11:15 a.m. local time on Sunday after a nearly three-hour delay caused by Hamas's failure to provide a list of hostages scheduled for release. The truce was originally set to begin at 8:30 a.m., but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that it would not proceed until Hamas provided the names. Hamas cited technical reasons for the delay but eventually delivered the list, naming three Israeli women to be released: Romi Gonen, 24, Emily Damari, 28, and Doron Steinbrecher, 31. During the delay, Israel continued strikes on Gaza. With the names received, the ceasefire commenced, and the hostages are expected to be released later in the day.
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Military actions • 25%
Territorial disputes • 25%
Prisoner exchange disputes • 25%
Other • 25%
External influences • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Hamas actions • 25%
Israeli actions • 25%
External interference • 25%
Breach of terms by Hamas • 25%
Internal political pressure • 25%
Breach of terms by Israel • 25%
External interference • 25%
Violation by Israel • 25%
Other • 25%
Violation by Hamas • 25%
Hamas Actions • 25%
External Influence • 25%
Israeli Actions • 25%
Other • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Renewed hostilities initiated by Hamas • 25%
Third-party intervention • 25%
Renewed hostilities initiated by Israel • 25%
Mediation Challenges • 25%
External Political Pressure • 25%
Hamas Demands • 25%
Internal Israeli Opposition • 25%
Other • 25%
Internal Palestinian disagreements • 25%
International pressure • 25%
New Israeli demands • 25%
Disagreements over prisoner release terms • 25%
Other • 25%
Logistical challenges • 25%
Disagreements over hostage release terms • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Political disagreements • 25%
Other • 25%
Israeli military actions • 25%
Hamas violations • 25%
Ceasefire extended with negotiations ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire holds without full agreement • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with renewed conflict • 25%