Market
What will be the Israeli government's policy outcome on Gaza by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Full military control of Gaza • 25%
Partial military control of Gaza • 25%
Ceasefire maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government or credible news sources such as BBC, Reuters, or Al Jazeera
Story
Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich Threatens Government Over Gaza Control and Gradual Takeover
Jan 19, 2025, 10:14 AM
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has threatened to bring down the government if Israel does not resume fighting in the Gaza Strip to achieve full control and management of the region. Smotrich's statements come in the wake of a ceasefire agreement, which he criticized, asserting that he had secured assurances from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's cabinet for a continued war on Gaza, including a gradual Israeli takeover of the entire strip. Smotrich also made controversial remarks about the Palestinian population, stating that Israel would 'erase the smile on their faces and turn it into screaming for the breakdown of those who remained alive,' describing Palestinians as 'animals who love death and dance for the destruction of their life.' He further claimed that Gaza is currently 'uninhabitable' and would remain so.
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Similar markets
Other outcome • 25%
Continuation of ceasefire • 25%
Partial military operations • 25%
Full military occupation of Gaza • 25%
Continuation of current strategy • 25%
Initiation of peace talks • 25%
Increase in military operations • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Economic development focus • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Partial Israeli control • 25%
Full Israeli control • 25%
Return to pre-October 7 status quo • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostage release only • 25%
Neither • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire only • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased humanitarian aid • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased military action • 25%
Deal approved without terrorist release • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Deal approved with terrorist release • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Neither • 25%
Both hostage deal and ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire only • 25%
Hostage deal only • 25%
Humanitarian aid increase • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Hamas regime weakened but not collapsed • 25%
No significant change in Hamas regime • 25%
Hamas regime collapsed • 25%
Hamas strengthened • 25%
Increased policy severity • 25%
Policy continuation • 25%
Policy modification • 25%
Policy reversal • 25%
Complete defeat of Hamas • 25%
Hostage deal reached, no military action • 25%
Partial defeat with ongoing conflict • 25%
No significant military action taken • 25%