Market
Outcome of next major Israeli political decision regarding Gaza by April 2025?
2
Israeli•Itay Svirsky•Gaza Strip•Israel Defense Forces•IDF•Shin Bet•Benjamin Netanyahu•Svirsky•Hamas•Orit•Rafi•Israel•Gaza
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military action • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased humanitarian aid • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government or major news outlets
Story
IDF and Shin Bet Recover Body of Hostage Itay Svirsky, 38, Murdered by Hamas in Captivity
Dec 4, 2024, 06:38 PM
Israeli forces have recovered the body of hostage Itay Svirsky, 38, from the Gaza Strip in a special operation involving the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the Shin Bet security agency, according to an announcement by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office. Svirsky was abducted by Hamas militants on October 7, 2023, from Kibbutz Be'eri during a large-scale attack that claimed the lives of his parents, Orit and Rafi. He was subsequently murdered while in captivity in January 2024. Svirsky leaves behind three siblings, and his body will be laid to rest between his parents in Israel. The operation underscores the ongoing efforts to recover Israeli hostages and their remains from Gaza, where approximately 100 hostages are still believed to be held by Hamas.
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Full military occupation of Gaza • 25%
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Military intervention • 25%
Humanitarian aid increase • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Partial military control of Gaza • 25%
Ceasefire maintained • 25%
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Full military control of Gaza • 25%
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Continuation of current strategy • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Initiation of peace talks • 25%
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Deal approved with terrorist release • 25%
Deal approved without terrorist release • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Postponed • 34%
Rejected • 33%
Approved • 33%
Economic development focus • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Full agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
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Hostage deal only • 25%
Neither • 25%
Both hostage deal and ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire only • 25%
Hamas retains significant control • 25%
Complete defeat of Hamas • 25%
Partial defeat with cease-fire • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Hostage release only • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire only • 25%
Neither • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Full peace agreement • 25%
Extended ceasefire • 25%