Market
What will be the outcome of U.S.-Israel negotiations on Gaza by January 20, 2025?
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Joe Biden•Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu•Gaza•White House•Biden•National Security•Jake Sullivan•Donald Trump•Sullivan•Netanyahu
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire only • 25%
Hostage release only • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage release • 25%
Neither • 25%
Official announcements from the White House or Israeli government
Story
Biden Urges Immediate Ceasefire in Gaza, Hostage Deal Before Jan. 20
Jan 12, 2025, 05:12 PM
U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed negotiations for a hostage release and ceasefire deal in Gaza during a phone call on Sunday. The conversation, confirmed by a White House official, highlighted the immediate need for a ceasefire in Gaza and the return of hostages, with Biden stressing the importance of enabling a surge in humanitarian aid through a stoppage in the fighting. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan indicated that the U.S. is very close to reaching an agreement before President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20. Sullivan also mentioned that Biden would soon speak with Netanyahu to further discuss these negotiations.
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Ceasefire only • 25%
Hostage deal only • 25%
Both hostage deal and ceasefire • 25%
Neither • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Only Hostage Release • 25%
Only Ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire and Hostage Release • 25%
Agreement not approved • 25%
Agreement approved and implemented • 25%
Agreement approved but not implemented • 25%
Negotiations continue beyond deadline • 25%
Ceasefire with hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire without hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Deal approved without terrorist release • 25%
Deal approved with terrorist release • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Hostage exchange deal finalized • 25%
Extended ceasefire • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostage Release Only • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Full agreement reached • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 34%
No agreement reached • 33%
Hostages released • 33%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial hostage release • 25%
Other outcome • 25%