Market
What will be the impact on U.S. social media landscape if TikTok is banned by June 30, 2025?
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Donald Trump•TikTok•Chinese•ByteDance•Trump•Justice Department•Supreme Court•Americans•First Amendment•Chinese government
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase in Instagram Users • 25%
Increase in Snapchat Users • 25%
Increase in YouTube Shorts Users • 25%
No Significant Shift • 25%
Market analysis reports and user statistics from credible sources
Story
Trump Seeks Supreme Court Delay on TikTok Ban to Allow Political Resolution
Jan 4, 2025, 10:00 AM
President-elect Donald Trump has requested the U.S. Supreme Court to delay the implementation of a law that would ban TikTok in the U.S. unless its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, divests from the platform by Jan. 19. Trump's request comes as he aims to resolve the issue through political means after his inauguration on Jan. 20. The Justice Department, however, has urged the Supreme Court to reject Trump's request, arguing that TikTok poses a national security threat due to its data collection practices and potential for foreign influence operations. The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments on the case on Jan. 10, just days before the law is scheduled to take effect. TikTok, used by 170 million Americans, has argued that the law infringes on First Amendment rights and could set a dangerous precedent for speech suppression. The platform has also denied any direct influence from the Chinese government on its operations.
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Similar markets
Increase in Facebook/Instagram usage • 25%
Rise of a new social media platform • 25%
Shift to Twitter/X • 25%
Other significant change • 25%
Other user behaviors • 25%
Users stop using TikTok • 25%
Users use VPNs to access TikTok • 25%
Significant user migration to competitors • 25%
Minor decrease (<25%) • 25%
Moderate decrease (25-50%) • 25%
Significant decrease (>50%) • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Decrease in social media usage • 25%
Protests or legal action • 25%
Migration to other platforms • 25%
No significant change in user behavior • 25%
Significant decline in user engagement • 25%
Majority continue using TikTok despite restrictions • 25%
Majority migrate to alternative platforms • 25%
Significant migration to alternative platforms • 25%
Protests or legal action by users • 25%
Minimal impact on user base • 25%
Other significant reactions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease by 25-50% • 25%
Decrease by over 50% • 25%
Decrease by less than 25% • 25%
Minimal response • 25%
Major protests • 25%
Legal challenges • 25%
Adoption of alternatives • 25%
Other response • 25%
Launch of new competing platform • 25%
Increased investment in short-form video features • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant backlash • 25%
Minimal backlash • 25%
No noticeable backlash • 25%
Moderate backlash • 25%
Instagram releases new features • 25%
Snapchat increases user engagement • 25%
YouTube launches short video incentives • 25%
Other responses • 25%
TikTok granted extension • 33%
TikTok divested • 34%
TikTok banned • 33%