Market
How will TikTok's U.S. user base react to the ban by May 31, 2025?
1
Resolution / Starting Odds
Majority migrate to alternative platforms • 25%
Majority continue using TikTok despite restrictions • 25%
Significant decline in user engagement • 25%
No significant change in user behavior • 25%
Surveys or reports from market research firms
Story
Supreme Court Upholds TikTok Ban Citing National Security, Unless ByteDance Sells
Jan 17, 2025, 03:40 PM
The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday unanimously upheld a federal law that will ban TikTok starting Sunday unless the app is sold by its China-based parent company, ByteDance. The court ruled that national security concerns related to TikTok's ties to China outweigh potential limitations on free speech for the app's 170 million U.S. users. The decision comes as President-elect Donald Trump has expressed intentions to negotiate a solution, while the Biden administration has indicated it will not enforce the ban on its last day in office. The law, passed with bipartisan support, aims to address concerns over data collection practices and the potential for Chinese government influence on the platform. Without a sale, new users will be unable to download TikTok, and existing users will not receive updates, eventually rendering the app unusable.
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Other • 25%
Decrease in social media usage • 25%
Protests or legal action • 25%
Migration to other platforms • 25%
Minimal impact on user base • 25%
Other significant reactions • 25%
Protests or legal action by users • 25%
Significant migration to alternative platforms • 25%
Increased usage • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Organized protests • 25%
Decreased usage • 25%
Decrease by over 50% • 25%
Decrease by less than 25% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease by 25-50% • 25%
Users use VPNs to access TikTok • 25%
Other user behaviors • 25%
Users stop using TikTok • 25%
Significant user migration to competitors • 25%
No noticeable backlash • 25%
Moderate backlash • 25%
Significant backlash • 25%
Minimal backlash • 25%
Significant protests and public outcry • 25%
Major migration to other platforms • 25%
Minimal impact, users adapt • 25%
Other response • 25%
Widespread support • 25%
Indifference • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Widespread opposition • 25%
Minimal response • 25%
Major protests • 25%
Legal challenges • 25%
Adoption of alternatives • 25%
Majority oppose ban • 33%
Divided opinion • 34%
Majority support ban • 33%
Stop using TikTok • 25%
Use VPNs to access TikTok • 25%
Switch to alternative apps • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Mostly supportive • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Indifferent • 25%
Mostly opposed • 25%