Market
How will TikTok's U.S. user base change if the ban is upheld by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Decrease by over 50% • 25%
Decrease by 25-50% • 25%
Decrease by less than 25% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
User statistics from TikTok or industry reports
Story
Supreme Court Hears TikTok's Appeal Against U.S. Ban Set for January 19
Jan 10, 2025, 02:15 AM
The U.S. Supreme Court is set to hear arguments today, January 10, 2025, in TikTok's challenge against the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, a federal law requiring the app to divest from its Chinese parent company ByteDance or face a nationwide ban. The law, signed by President Biden in April 2024, mandates that TikTok be sold by January 19, 2025, citing national security concerns over its Chinese ownership. TikTok has sued to block the law, arguing that it violates free speech rights. If the Supreme Court does not intervene, TikTok plans to shut down its U.S. operations on January 19. The case presents a collision between free speech and national security, with significant implications for the social media landscape and the roughly half of Americans who use the app for entertainment and information.
View original story
Similar markets
Other user behaviors • 25%
Significant user migration to competitors • 25%
Users use VPNs to access TikTok • 25%
Users stop using TikTok • 25%
Majority continue using TikTok despite restrictions • 25%
Majority migrate to alternative platforms • 25%
No significant change in user behavior • 25%
Significant decline in user engagement • 25%
Protests or legal action • 25%
Decrease in social media usage • 25%
Migration to other platforms • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant decrease (>50%) • 25%
Moderate decrease (25-50%) • 25%
Minor decrease (<25%) • 25%
No significant change • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease in users • 25%
Increase in users • 25%
Data not available • 25%
Significant migration to alternative platforms • 25%
Other significant reactions • 25%
Minimal impact on user base • 25%
Protests or legal action by users • 25%
Increased usage • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Organized protests • 25%
Decreased usage • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Decrease in users • 25%
Increase in users • 25%
Other • 25%
Decrease • 25%
No Change • 25%
Increase • 25%
Decrease by 20-50% • 25%
Decrease by less than 20% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease by over 50% • 25%
Platform banned • 25%
User base increases • 25%
User base stable • 25%
User base decreases • 25%
User base remains stable • 25%
User base increases • 25%
User base decreases • 25%
TikTok exits U.S. market • 25%