Market
How will the TikTok and ByteDance issue be resolved by March 31, 2025?
2
Donald Trump•TikTok•Chinese•ByteDance•Trump•Justice Department•Supreme Court•Americans•First Amendment•Chinese government
Resolution / Starting Odds
Divestment • 25%
Political Resolution • 25%
Legal Battle Continues • 25%
TikTok Banned • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. government or ByteDance
Story
Trump Seeks Supreme Court Delay on TikTok Ban to Allow Political Resolution
Jan 4, 2025, 10:00 AM
President-elect Donald Trump has requested the U.S. Supreme Court to delay the implementation of a law that would ban TikTok in the U.S. unless its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, divests from the platform by Jan. 19. Trump's request comes as he aims to resolve the issue through political means after his inauguration on Jan. 20. The Justice Department, however, has urged the Supreme Court to reject Trump's request, arguing that TikTok poses a national security threat due to its data collection practices and potential for foreign influence operations. The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments on the case on Jan. 10, just days before the law is scheduled to take effect. TikTok, used by 170 million Americans, has argued that the law infringes on First Amendment rights and could set a dangerous precedent for speech suppression. The platform has also denied any direct influence from the Chinese government on its operations.
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Similar markets
Political resolution by Trump • 25%
No resolution • 25%
ByteDance divestment • 25%
Supreme Court decision • 25%
Continued ban • 25%
Sale to U.S. company • 25%
Ban lifted with no changes • 25%
Government ownership • 25%
Executive order • 25%
Court decision • 25%
Legislative action • 25%
Business negotiation • 25%
TikTok sold to U.S. company • 25%
TikTok remains with ByteDance • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
New partnership deal • 25%
Court ruling enforcement • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Legislative action • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
No change • 25%
Ban • 25%
Sale • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Supreme Court ruling • 25%
Political negotiation • 25%
ByteDance divestment • 25%
Other • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok • 25%
No resolution • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Concerns Resolved • 25%
Concerns Unresolved • 25%
Sale to U.S. Entity • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Supreme Court intervention • 25%
Other • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Political resolution reached • 25%
Sold to another entity • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban blocked • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
U.S. ownership • 25%
ByteDance retains ownership • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
International ownership • 25%