Market
What impact will the TikTok ban have on its U.S. user base by February 19, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant decrease (>50%) • 25%
Moderate decrease (25-50%) • 25%
Minor decrease (<25%) • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Reports from TikTok or third-party analytics firms on U.S. user numbers
Story
Supreme Court Likely to Uphold TikTok Ban by January 19 Unless ByteDance Divests, Affecting 170 Million Users
Jan 10, 2025, 06:35 PM
The U.S. Supreme Court appears likely to uphold a federal law that could ban TikTok in the United States starting January 19, unless the app's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, divests its ownership. During oral arguments, justices from both sides of the political spectrum expressed skepticism about TikTok's challenge to the law, which is based on First Amendment grounds. The justices seemed persuaded by the government's argument that national security concerns related to TikTok's ties to China override free speech considerations. Chief Justice John Roberts highlighted the main concern as TikTok's ownership by ByteDance, which is required to cooperate with Chinese intelligence operations. If the law is upheld, TikTok could 'go dark' on January 19, affecting its 170 million American users. However, President-elect Donald Trump, who has 14.7 million followers on the platform and will be inaugurated on January 20, has requested a delay to negotiate a 'political resolution.'
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User base remains stable • 25%
Platform inaccessible • 25%
User base decreases • 25%
User base increases • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease in users • 25%
Increase in users • 25%
Data not available • 25%
Users use VPNs to access TikTok • 25%
Other user behaviors • 25%
Users stop using TikTok • 25%
Significant user migration to competitors • 25%
Decrease by 25-50% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease by less than 25% • 25%
Decrease by over 50% • 25%
User base remains stable • 25%
User base increases • 25%
TikTok exits U.S. market • 25%
User base decreases • 25%
User base increases • 25%
Platform banned • 25%
User base decreases • 25%
User base stable • 25%
50-100 million • 25%
Less than 50 million • 25%
More than 150 million • 25%
100-150 million • 25%
Majority continue using TikTok despite restrictions • 25%
Majority migrate to alternative platforms • 25%
No significant change in user behavior • 25%
Significant decline in user engagement • 25%
Decreased usage • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Organized protests • 25%
Increased usage • 25%
Decrease by 20-50% • 25%
Decrease by over 50% • 25%
Decrease by less than 20% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Ban Lifted • 25%
Ban Remains • 25%
Partial Operations Allowed • 25%
Migration to other platforms • 25%
Other • 25%
Protests or legal action • 25%
Decrease in social media usage • 25%