Market
How will social media platforms respond to TikTok's U.S. shutdown by mid-2025?
2
Mike Johnson•United States•TikTok•Chinese•ByteDance•Johnson•Chinese Communist Party•Donald Trump•Congress•Supreme Court•First Amendment•Trump•Save TikTok
Resolution / Starting Odds
Launch of new competing platform • 25%
Increased investment in short-form video features • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other response • 25%
Official announcements from social media companies or news reports
Story
Mike Johnson: U.S. to Enforce TikTok Ban Law After Supreme Court Ruling, TikTok Shuts Down in U.S.
Jan 19, 2025, 06:49 PM
House Speaker Mike Johnson has announced that the United States will enforce the law requiring TikTok, owned by Chinese company ByteDance, to either fully divest from its U.S. operations or face a ban. Johnson emphasized that the law mandates a complete divestiture from the Chinese Communist Party, rejecting proposals for partial sales, such as the 50% divestiture suggested by President Donald Trump. The TikTok ban law, passed by Congress last year, was upheld by the Supreme Court earlier this month, which had set a 270-day timeline for compliance. ByteDance had challenged the law, arguing it violated the First Amendment, but the court ruled unanimously in favor of the ban, citing national security concerns. TikTok voluntarily shut down its platform in the U.S. on January 19, just before the law took effect. Johnson also addressed Trump's recent 'Save TikTok' post and plans for an executive order to extend the compliance timeline, stating that the enforcement of this law is critical to addressing data privacy and security risks posed by the Chinese Communist Party.
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YouTube launches short video incentives • 25%
Snapchat increases user engagement • 25%
Instagram releases new features • 25%
Other responses • 25%
Increase in YouTube Shorts Users • 25%
Increase in Snapchat Users • 25%
Increase in Instagram Users • 25%
No Significant Shift • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Move to other platforms • 25%
Create own independent content • 25%
Leave social media • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Increase marketing efforts • 25%
Launch similar features • 25%
Other strategic moves • 25%
Announce plans to remove if no sale • 25%
Remove TikTok from app stores • 25%
Keep TikTok available • 25%
Other actions • 25%
YouTube Shorts • 25%
Other platform • 25%
Snapchat Spotlight • 25%
Instagram Reels • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Neutral or indifferent • 25%
Supportive of the ban • 25%
Major backlash • 25%
Other significant change • 25%
Rise of a new social media platform • 25%
Increase in Facebook/Instagram usage • 25%
Shift to Twitter/X • 25%
Challenge in court • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Comply with the ban • 25%
Divest from ByteDance • 25%
All withdraw support • 25%
All continue support • 25%
Some withdraw support • 25%
No statement • 25%
Widespread protests • 25%
Other reactions • 25%
Support for the ban • 25%
General indifference • 25%
Remains banned throughout 2025 • 25%
Wins legal challenge and resumes operations • 25%
Sells TikTok U.S. operations • 25%
Other resolution • 25%