Market
How will TikTok's U.S. user base react if banned by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Migration to other platforms • 25%
Protests or legal action • 25%
Decrease in social media usage • 25%
Other • 25%
Surveys, social media analysis, or credible news reports
Story
Supreme Court Upholds Law Requiring TikTok to Divest from ByteDance by Sunday or Face U.S. Ban
Jan 17, 2025, 03:04 PM
The U.S. Supreme Court has upheld a law that requires TikTok to divest from its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, by Sunday or face a nationwide ban. The unanimous, unsigned decision clears the way for the enforcement of the statute, which was passed with bipartisan support in Congress last April. The court concluded that the law does not violate the First Amendment rights of TikTok and its users, despite arguments from the company and content creators that it infringes on their free speech rights. The decision comes just days before the law is set to take effect, potentially leading to TikTok's shutdown in the U.S. if no divestiture occurs.
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Similar markets
Significant migration to alternative platforms • 25%
Other significant reactions • 25%
Minimal impact on user base • 25%
Protests or legal action by users • 25%
No significant change in user behavior • 25%
Significant decline in user engagement • 25%
Majority continue using TikTok despite restrictions • 25%
Majority migrate to alternative platforms • 25%
Decreased usage • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Organized protests • 25%
Increased usage • 25%
Moderate backlash • 25%
Significant backlash • 25%
No noticeable backlash • 25%
Minimal backlash • 25%
Majority oppose ban • 33%
Divided opinion • 34%
Majority support ban • 33%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease by 25-50% • 25%
Decrease by over 50% • 25%
Decrease by less than 25% • 25%
Major migration to other platforms • 25%
Significant protests and public outcry • 25%
Other response • 25%
Minimal impact, users adapt • 25%
Significant user migration to competitors • 25%
Users stop using TikTok • 25%
Users use VPNs to access TikTok • 25%
Other user behaviors • 25%
Indifference • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Widespread opposition • 25%
Widespread support • 25%
Indifferent • 25%
Mostly supportive • 25%
Mostly opposed • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Use VPNs to access TikTok • 25%
Switch to alternative apps • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Stop using TikTok • 25%
Widespread protests • 25%
Support for the ban • 25%
General indifference • 25%
Other reactions • 25%