Market
What level of uranium enrichment will Iran achieve by end of 2025?
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International Atomic Energy Agency•IAEA•Rafael Grossi•Davos•Iran•Donald Trump•Middle East•Grossi•Trump•European powers
Resolution / Starting Odds
Below 20% • 25%
Between 20% and 60% • 25%
Above 60% • 25%
Not publicly disclosed • 25%
IAEA reports or major news outlets
Story
IAEA's Rafael Grossi Urges Iran for Nuclear Understanding with Trump at Davos Amid Uranium Concerns
Jan 21, 2025, 11:28 AM
The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, speaking in Davos, has urged Iran to reach a nuclear understanding with the administration of Donald Trump to prevent another military conflict in the Middle East. Grossi emphasized the necessity of an agreement, referencing the previous nuclear deal from which the U.S. withdrew under Trump's first term. He highlighted Iran's continued production of highly enriched uranium and stressed the indispensable role of the U.S. in resolving the issue. Grossi's comments come amid escalating tensions and increased scrutiny from European powers on Iran's nuclear activities.
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Above 80% • 25%
70% to 80% • 25%
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60% or less • 25%
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61% to 70% • 25%
60% - 75% • 25%
90% or above • 25%
75% - 89% • 25%
Below 60% • 25%
Remains below 60% • 25%
Exceeds 60% but below weapons-grade • 25%
Reaches 60% • 25%
Reaches weapons-grade • 25%
Weapons-grade • 25%
Below 5% • 25%
5% to 20% • 25%
Above 20% but below weapons-grade • 25%
Significant advancements • 25%
Reduced nuclear activities • 25%
Nuclear program dismantled • 25%
No significant change • 25%
