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What will be the status of Iran's nuclear program by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
No significant change • 25%
Significant advancements • 25%
Reduced nuclear activities • 25%
Nuclear program dismantled • 25%
Reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or official statements
Story
Iran's Pezeshkian Denies Trump Assassination Plot in NBC Interview, Open to Talks if U.S. Keeps Promises
Jan 15, 2025, 08:09 AM
In an interview with NBC News anchor Lester Holt, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian denied allegations that Iran plotted to assassinate U.S. President-elect Donald Trump during last year's election campaign. He stated that Iran "never" attempted such actions and "never will." Pezeshkian called the accusations a scheme by Israel and other nations to promote hostility towards Iran. He also emphasized that Iran is not seeking nuclear weapons and warned Trump against risking war, asserting that Iran is not afraid of conflict but hopes for peace. Pezeshkian expressed readiness to engage in talks with the incoming Trump administration if the U.S. demonstrates commitment to its promises, saying, "If Trump proves he will keep his word, we will engage in talks."
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Enhance nuclear energy use • 25%
Seek diplomatic resolution • 25%
Pursue nuclear weapons • 25%
Maintain current stance • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Sanctions increased • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
US conducts military strike • 25%
Iran develops nuclear weapon • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
Withdrawal from agreements • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
Full compliance • 25%
Non-compliance • 25%
Progress unchanged • 25%
Progress halted • 25%
Progress accelerated • 25%
Progress slowed • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Diplomatic Agreement • 25%
Military Action • 25%
Increased Sanctions • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
New nuclear agreement • 25%
Continuation of current tensions • 25%
Escalation to military conflict • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Snapback sanctions reimposed • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
New diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
Maintain current levels • 25%
Other policy change • 25%
Increase enrichment levels • 25%
Decrease enrichment levels • 25%
New sanctions imposed on Iran • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Iran complies with nuclear deal terms • 25%
Military intervention occurs • 25%
Transfer of military equipment to allies • 25%
Diplomatic efforts only • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military action • 25%
Significant acceleration • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant deceleration • 25%