Market
What diplomatic actions will occur between Hamas and Israel by the end of March?
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Qatar•Foreign Ministry•Hamas•Israeli•Arbel Yehud•Agam Berger•Israel•Gaza•Netzarim Corridor•Palestinians•Yehud•Berger
Resolution / Starting Odds
Further hostages released • 25%
New ceasefire agreement • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Official statements from involved parties and news agencies
Story
Hamas to Release Arbel Yehud, Agam Berger; Israel to Open Netzarim Corridor Monday Morning
Jan 26, 2025, 09:55 PM
Qatar's Foreign Ministry announced that Hamas will release three Israeli hostages, including civilian Arbel Yehud and soldier Agam Berger, before Friday. Additionally, three more hostages are scheduled to be released on Saturday, in accordance with a ceasefire agreement. In exchange, Israel will allow displaced Palestinians to return to northern Gaza starting Monday morning via the Netzarim Corridor, affecting around 650,000 Palestinians. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office confirmed the release of Yehud, Berger, and another hostage on Thursday, and affirmed that Palestinians can move north on Monday. This agreement follows a period of tension after Israel delayed the return of Palestinians to northern Gaza due to disputes over the release of hostages, amidst a 15-month war that has killed over 47,000 Palestinians and saw Hamas take around 250 captives during their attack on October 7, 2023.
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Similar markets
Prisoner Exchange • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
International mediation requested • 25%
Other • 25%
Formal peace talks initiated • 25%
Ceasefire violations reported • 25%
Peace Talks • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Hostage Exchange • 25%
New agreement signed • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Other • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
Failed negotiations • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial agreement (e.g., hostage release only) • 25%
Extended ceasefire • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Hostage Release Only • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Hostage exchange deal finalized • 25%
Predominantly negative • 25%
Broad support • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed and hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed, no hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%