Market
What will be the next major diplomatic action involving the Gaza ceasefire by March 31, 2025?
2
Gaza•Hamas•Israeli•Romi Gonen•Emily Damari•Doron Steinbrecher•Hamas attack•Nova•Kibbutz Kfar Aza•Israel•United States•Qatar•Egypt•Palestinian
Resolution / Starting Odds
New agreement signed • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official announcements from involved governments and international news agencies
Story
Gaza Ceasefire Begins After Delay; Hamas to Release Romi Gonen, Emily Damari, Doron Steinbrecher
Jan 19, 2025, 10:28 AM
A ceasefire in Gaza has commenced after a nearly three-hour delay, with Hamas announcing the names of three Israeli hostages set to be released on Sunday. The hostages, identified as Romi Gonen (24 years old), Emily Damari (28 years old, British-Israeli), and Doron Steinbrecher (31 years old, Romanian-Israeli), were abducted during the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. Romi Gonen was taken from the Nova music festival, while Emily Damari and Doron Steinbrecher were kidnapped from Kibbutz Kfar Aza. The delay in the ceasefire was attributed to Hamas's late submission of the hostages' names, which Israel had demanded before agreeing to the truce. The ceasefire agreement, mediated by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt, marks the first step in a process aimed at ending the 15-month conflict. In exchange for the hostages, Israel is expected to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, with a total of 33 hostages and 737 prisoners involved in the deal. Celebrations have erupted across Gaza, and some Palestinians have begun returning to their homes, despite the delay underscoring the fragility of the agreement.
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Similar markets
Yes, without U.S. involvement • 25%
Other diplomatic outcome • 25%
No, no meeting occurs • 25%
Yes, with U.S. involvement • 25%
Military support to Israel • 25%
Humanitarian aid to Gaza • 25%
Sanctions on Gaza entities • 25%
New peace talks initiated • 25%
Broad support • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Widespread criticism • 25%
No significant reaction • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Comprehensive peace talks • 25%
Ceasefire extension • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
Full agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
No ceasefire • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
UN intervention • 25%
EU intervention • 25%
US-led intervention • 25%
No major intervention • 25%
Additional prisoner releases • 25%
No further developments • 25%
Further hostage releases • 25%
Ceasefire extension • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Full agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Partial ceasefire with phased agreements • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire only agreed • 25%
Ceasefire and hostages release agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%