Market
What significant diplomatic action will occur during the Israel-Hamas ceasefire?
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Steve Witkoff•Donald Trump•Middle Eastern•Israel•Hamas•Witkoff•Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu•Arab•The Times of Israel•Biden•Trump
Resolution / Starting Odds
Formal peace talks initiated • 25%
Ceasefire violations reported • 25%
International mediation requested • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from Israeli or Hamas officials and credible news reports
Story
Trump Envoy Steve Witkoff Influences Netanyahu to Secure Israel-Hamas Ceasefire and Hostage Release by January 20
Jan 15, 2025, 05:45 PM
Steve Witkoff, President-elect Donald Trump's special envoy for Middle Eastern affairs, played a pivotal role in securing a ceasefire and hostage deal between Israel and Hamas. Witkoff held a tense meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday, urging him to accept necessary compromises to finalize the agreement by January 20. According to two Arab officials cited by The Times of Israel, Witkoff's influence during this meeting was more effective than the efforts of the Biden administration throughout the year. The pressure from Witkoff and the anticipation of Trump's inauguration on January 20 were credited with moving the negotiations forward, resulting in an agreement in principle between Israel and Hamas. The deal, which is expected to be finalized soon, includes a six-week ceasefire and the release of hostages.
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Similar markets
No significant response • 25%
Predominantly negative • 25%
Broad international support • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
New agreement signed • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Predominantly negative reactions • 25%
No significant international reaction • 25%
Broad international support • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Mixed • 25%
Mostly negative • 25%
No significant reaction • 25%
Mostly positive • 25%
Mostly positive • 25%
Mostly negative • 25%
Largely indifferent • 25%
Mixed • 25%
Other • 25%
United Nations • 25%
United States • 25%
Qatar • 25%
Staged withdrawal and ceasefire • 25%
Other focus • 25%
Hostage release and ceasefire • 25%
Economic aid and ceasefire • 25%
Other diplomatic outcome • 25%
No, no meeting occurs • 25%
Yes, without U.S. involvement • 25%
Yes, with U.S. involvement • 25%
Ceasefire holds and hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire breaks and hostages not released • 25%
Ceasefire breaks but hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire holds but hostages not released • 25%
Extension of ceasefire • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Critical • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Mixed • 25%
Supportive • 25%
Qatar • 25%
Egypt • 25%
United States • 25%
United Nations • 25%