Market
Most Likely Resolution Approach for Taiwan Issue in U.S.-China Talks in 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Military deterrence • 25%
Economic pressures • 25%
International mediation • 25%
Publicly available diplomatic communications and statements
Story
Wang Yi and Rubio Discuss Taiwan and Bilateral Ties in First Call Since New U.S. Administration
Jan 24, 2025, 04:51 PM
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a phone call with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday, marking the first communication between the two since the new U.S. administration took office. The call was initiated by Rubio, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry. During the call, Rubio emphasized that the U.S. does not support Taiwan's independence and expressed hope for a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue acceptable to both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Wang Yi conveyed that China does not intend to 'surpass or replace' the U.S., stressing the importance of both nations maintaining communication, managing differences, and expanding cooperation to promote stable, healthy, and sustainable development of China-U.S. relations. Wang also urged Rubio to play a constructive role in the future of both nations and for global peace and stability.
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Similar markets
Increased military tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Peaceful agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Conflict escalation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Significant conflict • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
U.N. intervention • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan from other countries • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Increased support for China from other countries • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan • 25%
Maintains current policy • 25%
Decreased support for Taiwan • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation into conflict • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Increased military cooperation between Taiwan and allies • 25%
Formal reunification • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Increased diplomatic talks • 25%
Halt arms sales • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Issue diplomatic statement only • 25%
Cease military contacts • 25%