Market
U.S.-China Agreement on Taiwan Status by End of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the U.S. Department of State or Chinese Foreign Ministry
Story
Wang Yi and Rubio Discuss Taiwan and Bilateral Ties in First Call Since New U.S. Administration
Jan 24, 2025, 04:51 PM
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a phone call with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday, marking the first communication between the two since the new U.S. administration took office. The call was initiated by Rubio, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry. During the call, Rubio emphasized that the U.S. does not support Taiwan's independence and expressed hope for a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue acceptable to both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Wang Yi conveyed that China does not intend to 'surpass or replace' the U.S., stressing the importance of both nations maintaining communication, managing differences, and expanding cooperation to promote stable, healthy, and sustainable development of China-U.S. relations. Wang also urged Rubio to play a constructive role in the future of both nations and for global peace and stability.
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Other outcomes • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased military tensions • 25%
Peaceful agreement • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Conflict escalation • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Significant conflict • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other • 25%
No change in agreements • 25%
Strengthened military agreements • 25%
Reduced military agreements • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan • 25%
Maintains current policy • 25%
Decreased support for Taiwan • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Issue diplomatic statement only • 25%
Cease military contacts • 25%
Halt arms sales • 25%
No action taken • 25%
