Market
High-Level U.S.-China Summit on Taiwan in 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
News reports from credible sources such as Reuters or BBC
Story
Wang Yi and Rubio Discuss Taiwan and Bilateral Ties in First Call Since New U.S. Administration
Jan 24, 2025, 04:51 PM
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a phone call with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday, marking the first communication between the two since the new U.S. administration took office. The call was initiated by Rubio, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry. During the call, Rubio emphasized that the U.S. does not support Taiwan's independence and expressed hope for a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue acceptable to both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Wang Yi conveyed that China does not intend to 'surpass or replace' the U.S., stressing the importance of both nations maintaining communication, managing differences, and expanding cooperation to promote stable, healthy, and sustainable development of China-U.S. relations. Wang also urged Rubio to play a constructive role in the future of both nations and for global peace and stability.
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Improved relations • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
In China • 25%
In the U.S. • 25%
In a third country • 25%
Virtual meeting • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Significant conflict • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Conflict escalation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other outcomes • 25%
Peaceful agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased military tensions • 25%
Increased military cooperation • 25%
Improved technology sharing • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Strengthened trade relations • 25%
Third-party mediator • 34%
China • 33%
United States • 33%
Neutral stance • 25%
Maintains current policy • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan • 25%
Decreased support for Taiwan • 25%
Increased support for China from other countries • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan from other countries • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
U.N. intervention • 25%
