Market
Outcome of U.S.-China Relations on Taiwan by End of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Conflict or military escalation • 25%
Official statements from the U.S. Department of State and Chinese Foreign Ministry
Story
Wang Yi and Rubio Discuss Taiwan and Bilateral Ties in First Call Since New U.S. Administration
Jan 24, 2025, 04:51 PM
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a phone call with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday, marking the first communication between the two since the new U.S. administration took office. The call was initiated by Rubio, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry. During the call, Rubio emphasized that the U.S. does not support Taiwan's independence and expressed hope for a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue acceptable to both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Wang Yi conveyed that China does not intend to 'surpass or replace' the U.S., stressing the importance of both nations maintaining communication, managing differences, and expanding cooperation to promote stable, healthy, and sustainable development of China-U.S. relations. Wang also urged Rubio to play a constructive role in the future of both nations and for global peace and stability.
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Status quo maintained • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Conflict escalation • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
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Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
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Increased tensions • 25%
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Other outcomes • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Peaceful agreement • 25%
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Maintains current policy • 25%
Decreased support for Taiwan • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
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Increased military cooperation between Taiwan and allies • 25%
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Increased diplomatic talks • 25%
Formal reunification • 25%
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Decreased military support • 25%
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Diplomatic shift without military change • 25%
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No significant international response • 25%
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Increased support for Taiwan from other countries • 25%
U.N. intervention • 25%
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Increased support for Taiwan • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant deterioration • 25%
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No change • 25%
Minor deterioration • 25%