Market
What will be the outcome of US-China relations regarding Taiwan by the end of 2025?
2
US•Marco Rubio•Chinese•Wang Yi•Trump•Rubio•China•Taiwan•South China Sea•United States•Taiwan Strait•Wang
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Conflict escalation • 25%
Official government statements and credible international news agencies
Story
Rubio Expresses Concern Over China's Actions in Taiwan and South China Sea, Reaffirms US Commitment to Allies in First Call with Wang Yi
Jan 24, 2025, 05:08 PM
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a phone call with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Friday, marking the first formal discussion between the two since the start of the new Trump administration. Rubio expressed 'serious concern' over China's coercive actions against Taiwan and in the South China Sea. He reaffirmed the United States' commitment to its allies in the region and emphasized that the US does not support 'Taiwan independence', hoping for a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue acceptable to both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Rubio also highlighted the importance of managing bilateral relations maturely and rigorously to maintain world peace and stability. In response, Wang Yi stated that China does not intend to surpass or replace the US but must defend its legitimate right to development. He stressed China's principled stance on Taiwan, asserting that it has been part of China since ancient times and will not allow Taiwan to be separated from China. Wang urged Rubio to make constructive decisions for the future of both nations and the world's peace and stability.
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Similar markets
Significant conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Conflict or military escalation • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Increased military cooperation between Taiwan and allies • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation into conflict • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan • 25%
Maintains current policy • 25%
Decreased support for Taiwan • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Peaceful agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased military tensions • 25%
Increased support for China from other countries • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan from other countries • 25%
U.N. intervention • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Formal reunification • 25%
Increased diplomatic talks • 25%
Decreased military support • 25%
Maintained current level of support • 25%
Diplomatic shift without military change • 25%
Increased military support • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%