Market
How will Taiwan's international relations change due to Chinese military drills by June 30, 2025?
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Taiwan•Defense Ministry•China•Japan•South China Sea•Taiwanese•William Lai•Pacific•Hsinchu•Chinese•Taiwan Strait•Chinese Foreign Ministry•Mao Ning
Resolution / Starting Odds
Strengthening ties with US • 25%
Strengthening ties with Japan • 25%
Strengthening ties with EU • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Official diplomatic announcements or major news reports
Story
China Launches Largest Military Drills Since 1996 Around Taiwan, Deploys 60 Warships
Dec 11, 2024, 09:03 AM
Taiwan's Defense Ministry reported that China has launched large-scale military drills around the island, involving 53 military aircraft and 19 ships, marking the largest maritime deployment since 1996. The exercises involve activities around the "first island chain" and include about 60 warships and 30 coast guard vessels deployed from areas near the southern islands of Japan to the South China Sea. Taiwan's Defense Ministry spokesperson, Major General Sun Li-fang, stated that the maneuvers pose a significant security challenge, not only to Taiwan but also to other countries in the region. The drills appear to be in response to Taiwanese President William Lai's recent visit to the Pacific. Military jets were seen taking off and landing at Hsinchu airbase in Taiwan on Tuesday in response to the increased Chinese military activity. The drills have been criticized by Taiwan's government as undermining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated that China will not allow "Taiwan independence" separatist forces to go out of control and will never adopt a "wait and see" approach.
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Condemnation by the U.S. • 25%
No major international reaction • 25%
Condemnation by ASEAN • 25%
Condemnation by the EU • 25%
Calls for diplomatic talks • 25%
Condemnation and sanctions • 25%
Increased military presence in region • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Increased air patrols • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
Increased naval patrols • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Increased military presence by U.S. allies • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Economic sanctions against China • 25%
Increased military drills • 25%
Enhanced diplomatic efforts • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Complete cessation of military interactions • 25%
No change in military interactions • 25%
Decrease in military interactions • 25%
Increase in military interactions • 25%
Diplomatic mediation efforts • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Sanctions by Western countries • 25%
Condemnation by major international bodies • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Sanctions imposed on China • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased military activity • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
De-escalation • 25%