Market
What will be the impact of Chinese military drills on Taiwan's defense policies by December 31, 2025?
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Taiwan•Defense Ministry•China•Japan•South China Sea•Taiwanese•William Lai•Pacific•Hsinchu•Chinese•Taiwan Strait•Chinese Foreign Ministry•Mao Ning
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase in defense budget • 25%
Strengthened alliances with other countries • 25%
Deployment of additional military assets • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Official statements from Taiwan's government or defense policy changes reported by major news outlets
Story
China Launches Largest Military Drills Since 1996 Around Taiwan, Deploys 60 Warships
Dec 11, 2024, 09:03 AM
Taiwan's Defense Ministry reported that China has launched large-scale military drills around the island, involving 53 military aircraft and 19 ships, marking the largest maritime deployment since 1996. The exercises involve activities around the "first island chain" and include about 60 warships and 30 coast guard vessels deployed from areas near the southern islands of Japan to the South China Sea. Taiwan's Defense Ministry spokesperson, Major General Sun Li-fang, stated that the maneuvers pose a significant security challenge, not only to Taiwan but also to other countries in the region. The drills appear to be in response to Taiwanese President William Lai's recent visit to the Pacific. Military jets were seen taking off and landing at Hsinchu airbase in Taiwan on Tuesday in response to the increased Chinese military activity. The drills have been criticized by Taiwan's government as undermining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated that China will not allow "Taiwan independence" separatist forces to go out of control and will never adopt a "wait and see" approach.
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No significant response • 25%
Increased naval patrols • 25%
Increased air patrols • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Economic sanctions against China • 25%
Enhanced diplomatic efforts • 25%
Increased military drills • 25%
International appeal for support • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Increased military drills • 25%
Diplomatic resolution without military change • 25%
Continued military presence without escalation • 25%
Escalation leading to military conflict • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal of forces • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Increased military activity • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Other • 25%
Condemnation by the U.S. • 25%
No major international reaction • 25%
Condemnation by ASEAN • 25%
Condemnation by the EU • 25%
Continued military standoff • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Status quo maintained • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
