Market
What will be the international community's reaction to China's military operations near Taiwan by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Condemnation and sanctions • 25%
Calls for diplomatic talks • 25%
Increased military presence in region • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Official statements from international organizations and governments, and reports from international news agencies
Story
China Deploys 90 Ships in Massive Military Operation Near Taiwan
Dec 13, 2024, 04:28 AM
China has conducted a significant military operation near Taiwan, deploying approximately 90 naval and coast guard vessels, marking one of the largest military maneuvers in recent years. This operation included simulations of attacks on foreign ships and blockades of maritime routes, according to Taiwanese security officials. The Chinese Defense Ministry has not officially confirmed these drills but stated that it is up to China to decide on military exercises based on its needs and the situation. The Taiwanese authorities have noted an increase in Chinese military activity, with 12 Chinese military aircraft and 14 naval vessels detected operating around Taiwan in the past 24 hours. This deployment is seen as a response to Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's recent visit to the U.S. territories of Hawaii and Guam, which has heightened tensions between China and Taiwan. Taiwan's defense ministry has initiated war-preparedness drills and is closely monitoring the situation, emphasizing the evolving threat from China since 2022.
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Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Increased military presence by U.S. allies • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Diplomatic mediation efforts • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Sanctions by Western countries • 25%
Sanctions imposed on China • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Condemnation by major international bodies • 25%
Military deterrence • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Condemnation by the U.S. • 25%
Condemnation by the EU • 25%
Condemnation by ASEAN • 25%
No major international reaction • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Military conflict initiation • 25%
Joint military exercises • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Increased support for China from other countries • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan from other countries • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
U.N. intervention • 25%
Diplomatic resolution without military change • 25%
Escalation leading to military conflict • 25%
Continued military presence without escalation • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal of forces • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Other • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Increased military activity • 25%
ASEAN mediation efforts • 25%
US military support to Taiwan • 25%
UN sanctions • 25%
EU diplomatic intervention • 25%